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Australia has long been a major exporter of the products of broadacre agriculture, a production system well suited to the economic and climatic conditions of the country. According to the conventional wisdom, Australia holds a comparative advantage in these products, among which wheat and livestock products predominate. However, the future validity of this proposition is sensitive to the projected impacts of climate change. This paper develops a framework with which to quantify the future patterns of comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture given the projections of several global climate models. We find empirical support for the conventional wisdom, and note substantial resilience in Australia’s comparative advantage to adverse yield change.
