Ian Scoones from the Institute of Development Studies and the Future Agricultures Consortium reflects on some key issues emerging from a recent conference on the future of pastoralism in Africa. His overwhelming conclusion: Pastoralism is "alive and well" in some parts of the continent. But there are downsides: constraints caused by pressures on land, as well as recurring conflicts. This leads to a division between those who are "really making it" and those who are "really struggling." This poses major policy issues at the two ends of these extremes.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis and a mosquito-borne disease caused by a phlebovirus in the family Bunyaviridae. It affects livestock, humans and wildlife. Epidemic outbreaks of RVF in East Africa, which occur after heavy rainfalls in cycles of 5-15 years, have caused next to human morbidity and mortality considerable economic losses throughout the livestock production and market chain. Establishment of a pastoral livestock demographic model simulating alternating normal and drought periods (appropriate for the Sahel) and RVF epidemics.

Spatially explicit models are becoming increasingly important tools for simulating land-use change. In this study, we formulated and tested models that incorporated spatial correlates of agricultural expansion and used them to predict local- and landscape-scale patterns of agricultural land-use change and its implications in the Maasai-Steppe of Northern Tanzania. We evaluated the relationship between agricultural land-use and its spatial correlates using Multiple Logistic Regression on data derived from satellite imageries for the year 2000.