Differential Adaptation Strategies by Agro-Ecological Zones in African Livestock Management

This paper examines how farmers have
adapted their livestock operation to the current climate in
each agro-ecological zone in Africa. The authors examine how
climate has affected the farmer's choice to raise
livestock or not and the choice of animal species. To
measure adaptation, the analysis regresses the farmer's
choice on climate, soil, water flow, and socio-economic
variables. The findings show that climate does in fact
affect the farmer's decision about whether to raise
livestock and the species. The paper also simulates how
future climates may alter these decisions using forecasts
from climate models and the estimated model. With a hot dry
scenario, livestock ownership will increase slightly across
all of Africa, but especially in West Africa and high
elevation agro-ecological zones. Dairy cattle will decrease
in semi-arid regions, sheep will increase in the lowlands,
and chickens will increase at high elevations. With a mild
and wet scenario, however, livestock adoption will fall
dramatically in lowland and high latitude moist
agro-ecological zones. Beef cattle will increase and sheep
will fall in dry zones, dairy cattle will fall precipitously
and goats will rise in moist zones, and chickens will
increase at high elevations but fall at mid elevations.
Livestock adaptations depend on the climate scenario and
will vary across the landscape. Agro-ecological zones are a
useful way to capture how these changes differ from place to place.