Agricultural Risk Management in the Face of Climate Change

Climate change is becoming a source of
significant additional risks for agriculture and food
systems. Climate projections suggest that impacts will
include shifting average growing conditions, increase
climate and weather variability, and more uncertainty in
predicting tomorrow’s climate and weather conditions.
Agricultural risk management (ARM) is ideally placed to
support stakeholders in building resilience to these
increased risks in short and medium term. ARM can also play
an important role in the transition to a climate-smarter
agriculture system by offering a useful entry point for
dialogue. The clear initial focus on the management of
shorter term risks and their economic impact can help create
a sense of urgency and attract stakeholder involvement that
then paves the way for broader discussions around
climate-smart agriculture. This study seeks to understand
the climate change impacts on agricultural risk - how do
risks change? - and on ARM - how can agricultural risk
managers respond? This response has two elements: First,
what role can ARM play in meeting the climate change
challenge? Second, how will ARM need to adapt its
methodology to the new normal of climate change? Chapter one
briefly sketches a conceptualization of climate change
impacts on agricultural risk. Chapter two assesses the
impact of climate change on production risks, including
temperature fluctuations, drought events, heavy rainfall
(including floods), and other direct weather events, such as
cyclones and storms, as well as indirect implications of
climate change, such as pests and diseases. Chapter three
discusses risk repercussions at the market level. Chapter
four focuses on the implications of climate change risks on
the enabling environment. Chapter five assesses the
implications of climate change impacts for agricultural risk management.