Exit Timing Decisions under Land Speculation and Resource Scarcity in Agriculture
This paper explores the concept of agricultural resilience in the context of climate change relatedwater scarcity. Specifically, the impact of water scarcity on agricultural production is analyzedto derive the timing of exit decisions for farmers faced with the prospect of decliningprofitability in agriculture but increasing benefits from land rezoning in future. The prospects ofland rezoning are modeled as a poison process which may or may not be influenced by farmer’swater abstraction decisions.