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More than ten years after the departure of the Central and Eastern EuropeanCountries (CEEC) towards market economy and democracy now it seems to bepossible as well as necessary to analyse the present settings, the developmentsso far, and relevant problems faced during the transition. The main tasks aremaking the transition process empirically transparent and investigate its determinants.This has to be done in order to understand the particular trends and –based on that – to conceptualise sustainable policy concepts as well as adjustedreform measures. According to this challenge an analytical dilemma arise regardinga general focus on the subject on hand side (universal validity of the results)and the desire for diversified and precisely answers to the empirical questionson the other side. For the present study this conflict has been solved by selectingthe Russian Federation as one of the most heterogeneous research subjectswith a predominant position among the transition countries. In order tocapture the variety of the transition process Russia has been analysed along itsterritorial units (simplified: regions)9 divided into four sectors: industry, services,agriculture and construction, respectively, analysed aggregated as well asseparately for the period 1993-2000.Beside the transition process on a sectoral and regional level the main determinantsof these developments as well as their relevant political aspects are fromparticular interest. Accordingly, for this study three general objectives have beenformulated.10(1) Explore and record (quantitative comparable) the individual transition path,(2) Discover and verify the determinants of the transition process,(3) Derive policy implications (call for action, priorities, agenda, etc.).This successive structure of objectives – depict the transition, verify determinants,summarise policy implications – has been transferred directly into a threestage approach: (analytical step 1, 2, 3 (realised in the chapters V, VI, VII).The analytical idea is to approximate the progress of transition by individual developmentsof productivity. According to the analytical concept (see: chapter II)positive welfare effects have to be expected as a characteristic result of a successful transition due to an overcome of co-ordination and incentive problemswhich are typically inherent in a planned economy. Hence, the way from "a plantoward a market" can be properly illustrated by Total Factor Productivity (TFP)and its components (technological change, technical efficiency, etc.).The chapters (III, IV) discuss the relevant theoretical and methodological aspectsand develop appropriate models for the analyses. The empirical foundationof the study are sectoral production frontier analyses which are used to calculatetechnological change (TCH), technical efficiency (TE) and their trends. The determinantsof the transition process can be verified by regressing a sample ofexplanatory variables with respect to these scores.The results of the various analytical steps can be summarised as follows:The sectoral as well as regional transition paths are much more heterogeneousthan expected (see analytical step (1)). For the Russian economy (in total) aswell as for industry and service sector similar trends characteristics (commonpath but different levels) were found. The common patterns are dominated bycertain macro-economic indicators. Accordingly, four stylised phases of transitionwere extracted. These patterns have not been that clear for the constructionsector and have to be rejected for agriculture. Occasionally, the sectoral transitionpaths diverge. In analogy this is also true for the regional level.11 Almosteverywhere in Russia some regions can be found which have been more successfulin the transition process (in general or at least with respect to certain sectors)compared to the mean trends and/or related to their direct neighbours (whohad very similar initial conditions).12 Admittedly, for some regions, however, adevelopment clearly below the average trends has to be stated.13The same variety which were found with respect to the sectoral/regional transitionpaths has to be quoted regarding to the corresponding determinants. In analyticalstep (2) for a number of variables a significant influence on the transitionprocess (rather than on TCH, TE, etc.) at a general/inter-sectoral as well as atsector specific levels has been detected.The causalities of these variables14 and related policy measures have been discussedand, afterwards, along their political relevance grouped. Analytical step (3) has – based on that – a sequence of political calls for actionexposed. Some general aspects were addressed to the federal level. Indeed, themajority of the necessary actions and measures (acute needs, call for actions,open questions and discussions) have to be realised by the regions.15 As one ofthe most important tasks with Russia's regions a formulation of a decided politicalvision regarding the further transition process and the regional 'destination'has been indicated.16 This seems to be the precondition for any sustainable politicalprogramme. The questions, which measure has to be primary and howshould be the agenda accentuated have been discussed along a hierarchic structure.Furthermore, the implementation of policy measures and the potential influenceof certain Russian society groups in the upcoming reform debate havebeen reviewed. All these aspects were implemented in a conceptual guidelinewhich can be used to specify regionally adjusted reform policies.In view of the discussion about transition paths, relevant determinants, and therelated political implications it has to be summarised: the necessary preconditionsfor a successful transition in Russia are almost everywhere given.But, partly sufficient conditions and positive impulses are missing in order toinitiate substantial transition progress. The call for action and the responsibilityhave to be addressed to the regions. Hence, the configuration of the individualtransition path, the agenda setting, the political initiative and, therefore, the finalsuccess of Russia's way from a "plan towards a market" are basically in the responsibilityof the regions. But, the regions have to be aware of these challenges,should develop the chances actively and finally take advantage from the opportunities.If this will be successful then a substantial growth process can be expectedfor Russia's economy.
