Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh

It is a virtual certainty that sea-level
rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100
even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near
future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity
intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in
low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper
presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change
leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on
agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis
is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future
soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account
climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and
rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis
to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil
salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety
rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent
in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4
deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed
coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce
significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice
production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in
Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.