LAND-USE CHANGE AND CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN THE FORESTS OF OHIO, INDIANA, AND ILLINOIS: SENSITIVITY TO POPULATION AND MODEL CHOICE

This study develops a model of land use change in the Midwestern States of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Given the emergence of spatial econometrics, three models are compared to assess the sensitivity of the estimates to alternative assumptions about the distribution of their errors. Projections of future land use change are then developed, and the results are compared across different assumptions about population growth and models. We then estimate carbon sequestration potential in the region and compare the costs of different programs across the population assumptions and the alternative models. Different assumptions about population growth and error terms do not appear to affect the carbon sequestration cost estimates.