This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world.

The dual relationship existing between land-based activities and climate change has long been established. Land-based activities are responsible for about 30% (IPCC) of global GHG emissions and are at the same time particularly impacted by climate change as they are strongly dependent on weather patterns. Although physical and technical considerations may help to investigate these two kinds of issues, economic considerations are crucial to understand how agricultural producers react to climate change and to climate policies.