Econometric Analysis of some Trade Issues for Meat

This paper is based on an econometric model of the New Zealand meat export trade for the period 1990-2003. The model is known as a gravity model because it describes trade flows as being balanced between the respective pull of domestic and importing country size and incomes. The meat trade is characterised by strict hygiene regulations, quota markets and tariff charges in different markets. In addition, meat is not a homogeneous commodity but is characterised by breed, cut and presentation, and differentiated market destinations. An econometric model not only identifies general trends in demand and supply which might already be fairly obvious to the trade preactitioner but it also puts confidence intervals on the economic relationships being observed. We estimate income elasticities of demand, price elasticities, distance factors, tariff rate quota restrictions, and the impact of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) regulations. Results are available for `all meat’, `beef and veal’ and `lamb’ exports to 9 countries.