Resource information
Rapid urbanization results in farmland loss, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity decrease, and greenhouse gas emissions. Land-use policies and planning as administrative means are used to guide sustainable urban development and to balance the location of urban expansion and agricultural activities. To better understand the future implications of a variety of land-use policies, we used a FUTURES model scenario analysis to analyze the potential future patterns of urban areas and the loss and fragmentation of farmland and natural resources at the local level for Xi’an. We tested representative indicators of sustainable urbanization according to Plan 2014–2020. We found that scenarios representing the integration of several policies showed both synergetic spatial patterns and conflicting outcomes. The simulated land-use patterns of urban growth resulting from the combination of policies, were the most likely to support progress toward a livable compact city and natural resources’ conservation. These findings underscore the importance of simulation modeling and scenario analyses to quantify and visualize the results from policies and planning to support sustainable urbanization. Specifically, they show the value in simulation modeling for integrating information across scales, i.e., combining macro-level land-use policies with local-level spatial heterogeneity in socio-ecological settings, for identifying actionable planning solutions. Hence, these research results provide scientific support for land-use policy revision and implementation in Xi’an, as well as a reference point for other urbanizing cities in China.
