Resource information
Agricultural production is heavily
dependent on water availability in Turkey, where half the
crop production relies on irrigation. Irrigated agriculture
consumes about 75 percent of total water used, which is
about 30 percent of renewable water availability. This study
analyzes the likely effects of increased competition for
water resources and changes in the Turkish economy. The
analysis uses an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General
Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the
agricultural sector. The study investigated the economy-wide
effects of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase
in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate
change, along with the impact of the domestic reallocation
of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. It
was also recognized that because of spatial heterogeneity of
the climate, the simulated scenarios have differential
impact on the agricultural production and hence on the
allocation of factors of production including water. The
greatest effects on major macroeconomic indicators occur in
the climate change simulations. As a result of the transfer
of water from rural to urban areas, overall production of
all crops declines. Although production on rainfed land
increases, production on irrigated land declines, most
notably the production of maize and fruits. The decrease in
agricultural production, coupled with the domestic price
increase, is further reflected in net trade. Agricultural
imports increase with a greater decline in agricultural exports.
