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Rapid economic development has a significant negative impact on the rural ecological environment. Evaluating the ecological environmental effect of land use and its change trend at the village scale has important practical significance for maintaining ecological functions and ensuring ecological safety. Taking a typical village in Yudian Town as an example, we applied a land-use ecological environment effect evaluation and the CA-Markov change trend prediction model and constructed an index of ecological environmental effect status. Based on the land use, resource environment, and social economic data from 2014 and 2019, we evaluated the ecological environmental effects of land use in each village, simulated the land-use change in each village in two different scenarios, i.e., the developmental orientation (DO) and ecological orientation (EO), in 2030, and analyzed the corresponding change trend of the land-use effect. The ecological environmental effect of land use showed obvious characteristic differentiation in villages with different development levels. For example, villages with poor natural geographic background conditions and slower economic development had a good level of ecological environmental effect, whereas villages with better resource and environmental endowments but faster economic development had lower levels of ecological environmental effect. Village land-use management methods have had a certain effect on improving ecological security, but the effect has been slow. In conclusion, the research results portray the relationship between rural land use and ecological environmental effects in low hilly areas in northern Hubei at a small scale and have reference value for land resource allocation and spatial pattern optimization in similar regions.
