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Studies on the impact of climate change and sea level rise usually rake climate scenarios as their starting point. To support long-term water management planning int he Netherlands, this paper starts at the opposite end of the effect chain. The study refers to three aspects of water management:
flood defence
drinking water supply
protection of the Rotterdam harbour.
The authors examine whether, and for how long, current water management strategies will continue to be effective under different climate change scenarios. This was done by applying the concept of ‘adaptation tipping points’ – if the magnitude of change is such that the current management strategy can no longer meet its objectives. By applying this approach, the authors answer the following basic questions: what are the first issues that will be faced as a result of climate change and when can these be expected. The results show that climate change and the rise in sea level are more likely to cause a threat to the fresh water supply in the west of the Netherlands than flooding.
