Resource information
This paper analyzes the impact of
climate change on animal husbandry in Africa. It regresses
the net revenue from raising animals in small and large
farms across Africa on climate, soil, and other control
variables to test the climate sensitivity of livestock. The
study is based on a survey of over 9,000 farmers across 11
countries conducted by the World Bank and the Global
Environment Facility. From this dataset, 5,400 farms were
found to rely on livestock. The paper develops models to
test whether the climate coefficients of small and large
farms are similar. It turns out that small farms tend to be
more labor intensive, rely on native stocks, and have few
animals. Large farms tend to be more commercial operations,
with much larger stocks and more modern approaches. The
analysis finds that warming is good for small farms because
they can substitute animals that are heat tolerant. Large
farms, by contrast, are more dependent on cattle, which are
not heat tolerant. The wetter scenarios are likely to be
harmful to grazing animals because greater rainfall implies
a shift from grasslands to forests, an increase in harmful
disease vectors, and a shift from livestock to crops.
Overall, because large farms dominate the sector, African
livestock net revenues are expected to fall. However, if
future climates turn out to be dry, livestock net revenue
will increase. At least against the risk of dryness,
livestock offer a good substitute for crops.
