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This paper presents the preliminary results of two hypothetical futures for Vietnam, a High Climate Impact and a High Economic Growth Scenario.
The results of the study are taken to show that the structure of the Vietnamese economy, land distribution, and the composition of the food consumption basket are little affected by the scenarios. Impacts are, however, visible across sectors, with important inter-sectoral linkages between primary and processing industrial sectors. For example, climate change, primarily modelled via yields, is shown to slow down the economy. An increased demand for land by crops at the cost of livestock and commercial (production) forestry pushes up land prices with knock-on effects for the rest of the economy. Food security deteriorates across the globe and in Vietnam, with substitution towards cheaper imports. Pursuing higher economic growth by increasing yields and technological progress in manufacturing and agriculture sectors can turn these developments around and minimise land price increases.
