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Bibliothèque Confronting the Food–Energy–Environment Trilemma

Confronting the Food–Energy–Environment Trilemma

Confronting the Food–Energy–Environment Trilemma

Resource information

Date of publication
Octobre 2015
ISBN / Resource ID
oai:openknowledge.worldbank.org:10986/22716

Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world’s land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target.

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Authors and Publishers

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s)

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
Hertel, Thomas W.

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