Resource information
In order to have both dynamic and better
balanced growth, Serbia needs to rely more on exports. In
the last decade, Serbia's growth has depended primarily
on demand that was fueled by excessive debt finance. In the
future, the Serbian economy would be better served by
increasing its reliance on exports as a new, potentially
powerful source of growth. Serbia's export share of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is currently 25 percent, but
that figure should be closer to 50-75 percent, considering
that all European Union (EU) comparator countries1 have
export shares of GDP of 60-80 percent. Some sectors of the
economy are already better positioned than others to export.
For example, sectors in the traditional export base of
Serbia, such as food and some chemical products still have
vast potential for growth. Agriculture is widely considered
to have significant potential for improvement. Although
Serbia has recently become a net food exporter, these
exports could be substantially higher. The Serbian
government's number one task is to accelerate reforms
to create an environment that is highly conducive to
export-led growth. Serbia will need to fundamentally alter
its growth model in order to compete effectively in world
markets. The past model of relying on excessive inflows of
capital and credit coupled with a consumption boom has run
its course in all European countries, including Serbia.
