Resource information
This documented case of climate change
adaptation in Campeche Mexico grapples with a problem that
is fundamental to addressing climate change risks in areas
of high vulnerability, which is how to reach consensus and
take decisions under an uncertain future. The state of
Campeche in Mexico, is used as an example. With its long
coastline, Campeche is highly vulnerable to current and
projected future climate threats. Two different approaches
to decision making under uncertainty have been explored. (i)
A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach was
used to systematically analyze expected impacts, identify
and agree on a menu of adaptation measures, and prioritize
those measures, using a powerful combination of solid
scientific knowledge and local expertise. (ii) The real
options theory approach was applied to selected adaptation
alternatives, and the benefits of waiting were compared with
the costs of delaying decisions. In general, options that
were modular and flexible were found to lead to more robust
and prudent adaptation measures. The specific results
obtained in this work are less important than the overall
tenor and spirit of the messages from these exercises. Most
importantly both exercises SEA and real options demonstrated
that involved actors are ultimately consistent and cautious
in their approach to climate risks. An important lesson to
emerge from this work is that there is merit in adopting
multiple approaches to tackle problems where uncertainty
looms large. When the answers converge there is likely to be
greater confidence in the outcomes. A second and perhaps
more important lesson is the need to identify all costs
including the options foregone by embarking on an
irreversible course of action.
