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Biblioteca Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina

Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina

Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina

Resource information

Date of publication
Junio 2017
Resource Language
ISBN / Resource ID
LaReferencia:AR_1d6e142603ec9bc4a177e71de39a908d

The identification of suitable models for predicting daily water flow is important for planning
and management of water storage in reservoirs of Argentina. Long-term prediction of water flow is crucial for regulating reservoirs and hydroelectric plants, for assessing environmental protection and sustainable development, for guaranteeing correct operation of public water supply in cities like Catriel, 25 de Mayo, Colorado River and potentially also Bahía Blanca. In this paper, we analyze in Buta Ranquil flow time series upstream reservoir and hydroelectric plant in order to model and predict daily fluctuations. We compare results obtained by using a three-layer artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive (AR) model, using 18 years of data, of which the last 3 years are used for model validation by means of the root mean square error (RMSE), and measure of certainty (Skill). Our results point out to the better performance to predict daily water flow or refill them of the ANN model performance respect to the AR model. 

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Authors and Publishers

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s)

Pierini, Jorge Omar

Gomez, Eduardo Alberto

Telesca, Luciano

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Geographical focus