LIMITS REVISITED - A review of the limits to growth debate

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
"Four and a half decades after the Club of Rome published its landmark report
on
Limits to Growth
, the study remains critical to our understanding of economic
prosperity. This new review of the
Limits
debate has been written to mark the
launch of the UK All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on the Limits to Growth.
The 1972 report articulated for the first time the dynamic nature of our dependency
on physical resources and on ecological systems. It illustrated the processes of
‘overshoot and collapse’ that can occur when these limits are approached and
suggested that, without a shift in direction, adverse consequences would become
obvious “within the next century”. The report attracted fierce controversy. It also
inspired generations of environmental and social thinkers. It continues to offer
challenging insights into the predicaments of the 21st Century economy.
Limits Revisited
outlines the contents of the Club of Rome’s report, traces the
history of responses to it and dispels some of the myths surrounding it. We
unravel the arguments that have raged for forty years in its aftermath and explore
more recent findings which relate to the original hypothesis.
There is unsettling evidence that society is still following the ‘standard run’ of the
original study – in which overshoot leads to an eventual collapse of production
and living standards. Detailed recent studies suggests that production of some
key resources may only be decades away.
Certain other limits to growth – less visible in the 1972 report – present equally
pressing challenges to modern society. We highlight, in particular, recent work on
our proximity to ‘planetary boundaries’ and illustrate this through the challenge
of meeting the Paris Agreement on climate change. We also explore the economic
challenge of a ‘secular stagnation’.
If the Club of Rome is right, the next few decades are decisive. One of the most
important lessons from the study is that early responses are absolutely vital
as limits are approached. Faced with these challenges, there is also clearly a
premium on creating political space for change and developing positive narratives
of progress. A part of the aim of the APPG is create that space