Resource information
The pattern of global land use has
important implications for the world's food and timber
supplies, bioenergy, biodiversity and other eco-system
services. However, the productivity of this resource is
critically dependent on the world's climate, as well as
investments in, and dissemination of improved technology.
This creates massive uncertainty about future land use
requirements which compound the challenge faced by
individual investors and governments seeking to make long
term, sometimes irreversible investments in land conversion
and land use. This study assesses how uncertainties
associated with underlying biophysical processes and
technological change in agriculture affect the optimal
profile of land use over the next century, taking into
account the potential irreversibility in these decisions. A
novel dynamic stochastic model of global land use is
developed, in which the societal objective function being
maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels
(including bio-fuels), timber production, and biodiversity.
While the uncertainty in food crop yields has anticipated
impact, the resulting expansion of crop lands and decline in
forest lands is relatively small.
