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Decision makers facing abatement targets
need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in
which order. This paper investigates the ability of marginal
abatement cost (MAC) curves to inform this decision,
reanalysing a MAC curve developed by the World Bank on
Brazil. Misinterpreting MAC curves and focusing on
short-term targets (e.g., for 2020) would lead to
under-invest in expensive, long-to-implement and
large-potential options, such as clean transportation
infrastructure. Meeting short-term targets with marginal
energy-efficiency improvements would lead to
carbon-intensive lock-ins that make longer-term targets
(e.g., for 2030 and beyond) impossible or too expensive to
reach. Improvements to existing MAC curves are proposed,
based on (1) enhanced data collection and reporting; (2) a
simple optimization tool that accounts for constraints on
implementation speeds; and (3) new graphical representations
of MAC curves. Designing climate mitigation policies can be
done through a pragmatic combination of two approaches. The
synergy approach is based on MAC curves to identify the
cheapest mitigation options and maximize co-benefits. The
urgency approach considers the long-term objective (e.g.,
halving emissions by 2050) and works backward to identify
actions that need to be implemented early, such as public
support to clean infrastructure and zero-carbon technologies.
