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Library Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Resource information

Date of publication
december 2013
Resource Language
ISBN / Resource ID
oai:openknowledge.worldbank.org:10986/16440

Measurement of the likely magnitude of
the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture
has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than
9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional
approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by
climate change compared with current mean temperature.
Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature
elasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenues
rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are
located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered
by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming
has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated
crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock.
Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income
immediately. The final effects will also depend on changes
in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types
increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are
less sensitive to climate, where water is available,
irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.

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Authors and Publishers

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s)

Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
Mendelsohn, Robert
Hassan, Rashid
Benhin, James
Deressa, Temesgen
Diop, Mbaye
Eid, Helmy Mohamed
Fosu, K. Yerfi
Gbetibouo, Glwadys
Jain, Suman
Mahamadou, Ali
Mano, Renneth
Kabubo-Mariara, Jane
El-Marsafawy, Samia
Molua, Ernest
Ouda, Samiha
Ouedraogo, Mathieu
Sene, Isidor
Maddison, David
Seo, S. Niggol
Dinar, Ariel

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